Market Context by Polymarket
The X allowed to operate in China before May? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 30 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $863K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
On January 19, Elon Musk tweeted "the current situation where TikTok is allowed to operate in America, but 𝕏 is not allowed to operate in China is unbalanced" (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1880975630646612254?s=46&t=Hs7p1TPQxYmmgC2MAl-H9A). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the People's Republic of China announces X/Twitter will be unbanned or if X/Twitter becomes available for use by the majority of people in the People's Republic of China by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the government of the People's Republic of China announcing that X will be unbanned will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when X becomes available for use. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People's Republic of China and X/Twitter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for X allowed to operate in China before May??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on X allowed to operate in China before May??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the X allowed to operate in China before May? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on X allowed to operate in China before May??
$863K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on X allowed to operate in China before May??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.