Market Context by Polymarket

The Trump wins a solid blue state? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.

Cumulative volume on this market is $2.3M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican candidate for president wins the popular vote in any solid blue state(s) in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Solid blue states include: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington. Solid blue states are defined using the Cook Political Report's ratings as of this market's inception. Further changes to cook political report's rankings will not be considered for this market. Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Republican candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Trump wins a solid blue state??

No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on Trump wins a solid blue state??

No, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Trump wins a solid blue state? market resolve?

The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Trump wins a solid blue state??

$2.3M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Trump wins a solid blue state??

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.