Market Context by Polymarket
The Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 31 August 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $972K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between May 29, 12:00 PM ET and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 24 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on August 31, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 24 hours. This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 August 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September??
$972K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.