Market Context by Polymarket
The Fact Check: Was it a rogue actor? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 15 August 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.1M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that the shooter at Trump's rally was a rogue actor - namely he did not work with others in planning and/or perpetrating this act. This market will resolve to "No" if it is confirmed the shooter worked with others. This market will resolve once it is definitively determined whether the shooter was a rogue actor or not.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Fact Check: Was it a rogue actor??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Fact Check: Was it a rogue actor??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Fact Check: Was it a rogue actor? market resolve?
The market resolves on 15 August 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Fact Check: Was it a rogue actor??
$1.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Fact Check: Was it a rogue actor??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.