Market Context by Polymarket
The Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $299K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the candidate that FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast projects as most likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), or the FiveThirtyEight forecast is never released, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market may only resolve once Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) has been resolved. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100").
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on 538 correctly call the Election??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election? market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on 538 correctly call the Election??
$299K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on 538 correctly call the Election??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.