Market Context by Polymarket
The Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $367K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
Elections for the parliaments of two German states, Thuringia and Saxony, are scheduled for September 1, 2024. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party officially joins the state government of either Thuringia or Saxony as part of a governing coalition as a result of the German elections held on September 1, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If both of these elections do not occur by December 31, 2024 ET, or if no new government is formed by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the AfD association for each relevant state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony gover?
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony gover?
$367K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony gover?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.