Market Context by Polymarket
The São Paulo mayoral election 2024 market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Ricardo Nunes (MDB) currently leads at 100%, ahead of Pablo Marçal (PRTB) at 0% and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) at 0%, across 7 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 6 October 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $42M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This is a negrisk market group over which candidate will win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election, scheduled for October 6, 2024. If required, a runoff will be held on October 27, 2024.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for São Paulo mayoral election 2024?
Ricardo Nunes (MDB) leads at 100%, followed by Pablo Marçal (PRTB) at 0% and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 7 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on São Paulo mayoral election 2024?
Ricardo Nunes (MDB), at 100% implied probability.
How does the São Paulo mayoral election 2024 market resolve?
The market resolves on 6 October 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on São Paulo mayoral election 2024?
$42M has traded cumulatively on this market across 7 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on São Paulo mayoral election 2024?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.