Market Context by Polymarket

The Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Kamala currently leads at 100%, ahead of Trump at 0%. The market resolves on 11 September 2024.

Cumulative volume on this market is $5.3M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are currently scheduled to debate on September 10, 9 PM ET in an event hosted by ABC News. This market will resolve to “Kamala” if Kamala Harris is the Polymarket favorite to win the election one day after the debate. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump is the favorite to win. The favorite to win one day after the debate will be determined by looking at the 4 hour time window 24 hours after the debate is scheduled to begin, between Sep 11, 9 PM ET and 1 AM ET. This market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other during this period. The resolution source will be a comparison between the charts for each candidate found at https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 when the “6H” option is selected and decimals are turned on (settings icon -> Decimals toggled on). If the debate is postponed or cancelled, the rules will apply to the date one day after the first debate is rescheduled to begin. If no debate occurs before the election, this market will resolve to 50-50. The relevant data points will be those each minute during 9 PM ET to 1 AM ET (i.e. 9:00, 9:01 up to 12:59 AM ET) for each of the candidates. Each of these data points will be compared minute-by-minute, and this market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other. For example if they are tied in 160 data points, Trump is ahead in 60 data points, and Harris is ahead in 20 data points, this market would resolve to "Trump."

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate??

Kamala leads at 100%, followed by Trump at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on Favorite to win on Polymarket day after de?

Kamala, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate? market resolve?

The market resolves on 11 September 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Favorite to win on Polymarket day after de?

$5.3M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Favorite to win on Polymarket day after de?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.