Market Context by Polymarket

The Kamala positive favorability by Friday? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 20 September 2024.

Cumulative volume on this market is $443K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorable rating for any day between September 13 (inclusive) and September 20, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Harris's favorable rating must be higher than her unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after September 20, 2024 is published. If no such data point is available by September 27, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Kamala positive favorability by Friday??

Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on Kamala positive favorability by Friday??

Yes, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Kamala positive favorability by Friday? market resolve?

The market resolves on 20 September 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Kamala positive favorability by Friday??

$443K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Kamala positive favorability by Friday??

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.