Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Alaska currently leads at 100%, ahead of Florida at 0%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.4M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Florida” if Donald Trump's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Florida is higher than his margin of victory winning the popular vote in Alaska in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This market will resolve to "Alaska” if Donald Trump's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Alaska is higher than his margin of victory winning the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes received by each Donald Trump and the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in Florida and Alaska each for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If Donald Trump loses both states, this market will resolve based off the state in which he had a smaller margin of defeat between himself and the first place candidate. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once both relevant states have certified the vote. If a recount is initiated in either state before certification, this market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska??
Alaska leads at 100%, followed by Florida at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Trump do better in Florida or Alaska??
Alaska, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Trump do better in Florida or Alaska??
$1.4M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Trump do better in Florida or Alaska??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.