Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 19 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.4M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is elected to be President of the United States of America and Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Donald Trump by April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for whether Trump is elected or not is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on the person inaugurated. The primary resolution source for whether Hunter is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Trump pardon Hunter Biden??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? market resolve?
The market resolves on 19 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Trump pardon Hunter Biden??
$1.4M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Trump pardon Hunter Biden??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.