Market Context by Polymarket
The Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 1%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.1M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
Note: This market is about Kamala Harris winning with exactly 270 electoral votes, with this specific configuration: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kamala+270.png. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris secures exactly 270 electoral votes in the 2024 United States Presidential Election by winning the following states and districts: California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3 out of 4 electoral votes, including the 1st Congressional District and the At-Large vote), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (15), Minnesota (10), Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (1), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (28), Oregon (8), Pennsylvania (19), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12), and Wisconsin (10). If Kamala Harris does not win exactly these states and districts, thereby securing exactly 270 electoral votes, this market will resolve to "No." For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes. Faithless electors will not be considered. The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (including AP, NBC, Fox) on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI ?
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 1%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI?
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI?
$1.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.