Market Context by Polymarket

The U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤100k votes? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 99%, ahead of Yes at 1%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.

Cumulative volume on this market is $496K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the second-place candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could reach 270 Electoral College votes with an additional 100,000 votes, distributed optimally across any number of relevant jurisdictions (U.S. States, electoral districts, D.C). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To flip a jurisdiction, the number of additional votes allocated must be sufficient to give the second-place candidate a lead in that jurisdiction’s popular vote. Allocations that would result in a tie in any jurisdiction will not qualify, regardless of that jurisdiction's tie-breaker rules. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered. This market will resolve based on vote totals for the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published vote totals based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤100k votes??

No leads at 99%, followed by Yes at 1%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on U.S. election decided by ≤100k votes??

No, at 99% implied probability.

How does the U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤100k votes? market resolve?

The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on U.S. election decided by ≤100k votes??

$496K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on U.S. election decided by ≤100k votes??

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.