Market Context by Polymarket
The Iowa Margin of Victory market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Trump by 10%+ currently leads at 100%, ahead of Trump by 8-9% at 1% and Trump by 5-6% at 1%, across 16 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $45M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This is a market on the margin of victory in the Iowa election.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Iowa Margin of Victory?
Trump by 10%+ leads at 100%, followed by Trump by 8-9% at 1% and Trump by 5-6% at 1%. Odds reflect live trading across 16 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Iowa Margin of Victory?
Trump by 10%+, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Iowa Margin of Victory market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Iowa Margin of Victory?
$45M has traded cumulatively on this market across 16 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Iowa Margin of Victory?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.