Market Context by Polymarket

The Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 31 January 2025.

Cumulative volume on this market is $2.8M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

On November 25, Donald Trump announced that he would "sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States". (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 25% or greater tariff on imports into the United States from Mexico or Canada by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 25% or greater tariff on imports into the United States from Mexico or Canada is enacted. If a tariff is instituted on Mexico but not Canada, or on Canada but not Mexico, it will still qualify. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February??

No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canad?

No, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? market resolve?

The market resolves on 31 January 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canad?

$2.8M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canad?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.