Market Context by Polymarket
The Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 13 December 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $403K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
On December 9, Luigi Mangione was detained as person of interest in the ongoing manhunt related to Brian Thompson. It has been reported that at the time of detainment, Mangione was in possession of a manifesto. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the manifesto written by Luigi Mangione is made public by 11:59 PM ET on December 13, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The entire manifesto must be released for this market to resolve to "Yes". If the manifesto is released with redactions, it will still count. However mere snippets or quotes will not count to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Frida?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? market resolve?
The market resolves on 13 December 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Frida?
$403K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Frida?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.