Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 31 May 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.1M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
On December 9, 2024, police detained Luigi Mangione in Altoona, Pennsylvania, in connection with the incident involving UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mangione pleads guilty to any charges stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on his first pleas at the arraignment - subsequent pleas will not be considered. If the arraignment has not occurred by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". Only guilty pleas to charges directly stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson will qualify (e.g. a guilty plea to charges for possession of a Fake ID will NOT qualify). The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Luigi Mangione plead guilty??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 May 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Luigi Mangione plead guilty??
$1.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Luigi Mangione plead guilty??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.