Market Context by Polymarket
The US forces enter Iran by..? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. December 31 currently leads at 100%, ahead of April 30 at 100% and January 31? at 0%, across 9 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 9 April 2026.
Cumulative volume on this market is $367M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for US forces enter Iran by..??
December 31 leads at 100%, followed by April 30 at 100% and January 31? at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 9 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on US forces enter Iran by..??
December 31, at 100% implied probability.
How does the US forces enter Iran by..? market resolve?
The market resolves on 9 April 2026. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on US forces enter Iran by..??
$367M has traded cumulatively on this market across 9 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on US forces enter Iran by..??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.