Will Trump cut military spending?
The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act provides $895.2 billion in FY 2025 funding for national defense (see: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/fy25_ndaa_conference_executive_summary.pdf) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Defense Topline budget in the first official budget proposal released by the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for fiscal year 2026 is less than $895.2 billion. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that this market resolves solely on the first official budget proposal, regardless of whether the amount is later changed/altered. If the Trump Administration does not propose a defense budget for fiscal year 2026 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Trump Administration, specifically the White House OMB or other credible government sources.