Market Context by Polymarket

The Romania Presidential Election Winner market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Nicușor Dan currently leads at 100%, ahead of Person J at 100% and Călin Georgescu at 0%, across 25 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 18 May 2025.

Cumulative volume on this market is $234M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. On January 16, Romania's coalition government approved a re-run of the presidential election. It is scheduled for May 4, with a second round on May 18, if no candidate receives an absolute majority of the vote (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-confirms-date-tightens-rules-presidential-election-rerun-2025-01-16/). This market will resolve to the individual who wins the next Romanian presidential election including any potential second round. This market is inclusive of any election which results in the election of the next Romanian President. For example, if Romania decides to recertify the results of the November 2024 election, this market would resolve accordingly. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market group will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Romania Presidential Election Winner?

Nicușor Dan leads at 100%, followed by Person J at 100% and Călin Georgescu at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 25 outcomes.

Who is the favourite on Romania Election?

Nicușor Dan, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Romania Presidential Election Winner market resolve?

The market resolves on 18 May 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Romania Election?

$234M has traded cumulatively on this market across 25 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Romania Election?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.