Market Context by Polymarket
The Which coalition will form the next German government? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. CDU/CSU & SPD currently leads at 100%, ahead of CDU/CSU, SPD, & Greens at 0% and CDU/CSU & AfD at 0%, across 9 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 31 December 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $23M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Which coalition will form the next German government??
CDU/CSU & SPD leads at 100%, followed by CDU/CSU, SPD, & Greens at 0% and CDU/CSU & AfD at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 9 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on coalition will form the next German govern?
CDU/CSU & SPD, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Which coalition will form the next German government? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on coalition will form the next German govern?
$23M has traded cumulatively on this market across 9 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on coalition will form the next German govern?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.