Market Context by Polymarket
The Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. OpenAI currently leads at 100%, ahead of xAI at 100% and DeepSeek at 0%, across 10 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 31 December 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.8M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modelI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year??
OpenAI leads at 100%, followed by xAI at 100% and DeepSeek at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 10 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on companies will have a #1 AI model this yea?
OpenAI, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on companies will have a #1 AI model this yea?
$1.8M has traded cumulatively on this market across 10 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on companies will have a #1 AI model this yea?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.