Market Context by Polymarket
The How many Federal employees will accept buyout? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 50-100k currently leads at 100%, ahead of <50k at 0% and 100-150k at 0%, across 11 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 28 February 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $2.5M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it is offering deferred resignations to all federal employees who opt to leave their jobs by February 6 (see: https://www.opm.gov/fork) This market will resolve according to the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the number is reported as a percentage of the Federal workforce, with no reporting of the actual number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage reported out of 3,010,000 to calculate the number of deferred resignations (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001). If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for How many Federal employees will accept buyout??
50-100k leads at 100%, followed by <50k at 0% and 100-150k at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 11 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on How many Federal employees will accept buy?
50-100k, at 100% implied probability.
How does the How many Federal employees will accept buyout? market resolve?
The market resolves on 28 February 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on How many Federal employees will accept buy?
$2.5M has traded cumulatively on this market across 11 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on How many Federal employees will accept buy?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.