Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 30 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $761K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
On February 1, Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which imposes additional tariffs or increases the 25% general tariff on Canada by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Trump increase tariffs on Canada before Ma?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Trump increase tariffs on Canada before Ma?
$761K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Trump increase tariffs on Canada before Ma?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.