Market Context by Polymarket
The How large will Trump's EU tariffs be? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 20-30% currently leads at 100%, ahead of No blanket tariff by June 30 at 0% and <10% at 0%, across 6 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 30 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.4M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU). If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for How large will Trump's EU tariffs be??
20-30% leads at 100%, followed by No blanket tariff by June 30 at 0% and <10% at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 6 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on How large will Trump's EU tariffs be??
20-30%, at 100% implied probability.
How does the How large will Trump's EU tariffs be? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on How large will Trump's EU tariffs be??
$1.4M has traded cumulatively on this market across 6 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on How large will Trump's EU tariffs be??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.