Market Context by Polymarket
The Elon Musk # of tweets Jan 31 - Feb 7? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 650-674 currently leads at 100%, ahead of <500 at 0% and 500-524 at 0%, across 12 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 7 February 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $3.5M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and February 7, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Elon Musk # of tweets Jan 31 - Feb 7??
650-674 leads at 100%, followed by <500 at 0% and 500-524 at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 12 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Elon Musk # of tweets Jan 31 - Feb 7??
650-674, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Elon Musk # of tweets Jan 31 - Feb 7? market resolve?
The market resolves on 7 February 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Elon Musk # of tweets Jan 31 - Feb 7??
$3.5M has traded cumulatively on this market across 12 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Elon Musk # of tweets Jan 31 - Feb 7??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.