Market Context by Polymarket
The Ukraine election held by...? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. December 31, 2026 currently leads at 2%, ahead of December 31, 2025 at 0% and June 30, 2026 at 0%, across 3 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 1 January 2027.
Cumulative volume on this market is $2.5M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Ukraine election held by...??
December 31, 2026 leads at 2%, followed by December 31, 2025 at 0% and June 30, 2026 at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 3 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Ukraine election held by...??
December 31, 2026, at 2% implied probability.
How does the Ukraine election held by...? market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 January 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Ukraine election held by...??
$2.5M has traded cumulatively on this market across 3 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Ukraine election held by...??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.