Market Context by Polymarket
The CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election? [2% Brackets] market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 28-30% currently leads at 100%, ahead of <26% at 0% and 26-28% at 0%, across 6 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 23 February 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.1M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will according to the to the percentage of party list votes CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election? [2% Brackets]?
28-30% leads at 100%, followed by <26% at 0% and 26-28% at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 6 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election? [2%?
28-30%, at 100% implied probability.
How does the CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election? [2% Brackets] market resolve?
The market resolves on 23 February 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election? [2%?
$1.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 6 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election? [2%?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.