Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 30 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.5M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine agree to any deal between February 20 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that involves Ukraine agreeing to provide economic compensation to the U.S. for the repayment of aid. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes, but is not limited to, agreements related to the repayment of aid through mineral rights, rights to future profits, licenses, financial commitments, or any other form of economic compensation reported as repayment for aid by a consensus of credible reporting. An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted. An agreement for Ukraine to purchase U.S. goods, including military equipment, will not qualify unless it explicitly described as repayment for aid. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before?
$1.5M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.