Market Context by Polymarket
The Who will be the next Pope? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Robert Francis Prevost currently leads at 100%, ahead of Person M at 100% and Person N at 100%, across 29 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 31 December 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $30M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to the name of the next person elected to be the bishop of Rome after Pope Francis. If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No new Pope in 2025". If a person is elected to be the next bishop of Rome but declines the position, it will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The market associated with a named person will not resolve to "Yes" or "No" until the next bishop of Rome is elected and accepts the Papacy. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Who will be the next Pope??
Robert Francis Prevost leads at 100%, followed by Person M at 100% and Person N at 100%. Odds reflect live trading across 29 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on be the next Pope??
Robert Francis Prevost, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Who will be the next Pope? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on be the next Pope??
$30M has traded cumulatively on this market across 29 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on be the next Pope??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.