Market Context by Polymarket
The US GDP growth in Q1 2025? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 0% - (-1%) currently leads at 100%, ahead of >2% at 0% and 2% - 1% at 0%, across 6 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 30 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $590K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve according to the GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2025 scheduled for April 30, 2025. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for US GDP growth in Q1 2025??
0% - (-1%) leads at 100%, followed by >2% at 0% and 2% - 1% at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 6 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on US GDP growth in Q1 2025??
0% - (-1%), at 100% implied probability.
How does the US GDP growth in Q1 2025? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on US GDP growth in Q1 2025??
$590K has traded cumulatively on this market across 6 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on US GDP growth in Q1 2025??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on economics?
Fed and macro markets tend to move in step with rate futures and repricing after data releases. They are usually well-calibrated close to a decision date and noisier further out.