Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Fed end QT before May? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 30 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $6.3M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Federal Reserve increases the amount of securities it holds outright week over week by April 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Relevant information is typically released every Thursday for the Wednesday preceding it. This market will resolve according to information as it stands on the chart at any point, regardless of whether a datapoint is later revised down, unless a point that shows up is an obvious error. This market's primary resolution source will be information from the St. Louis Fed's "Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: Wednesday Level (WSHOTSL)" chart, found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOTSL
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Fed end QT before May??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Fed end QT before May??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Fed end QT before May? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Fed end QT before May??
$6.3M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Fed end QT before May??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.