Market Context by Polymarket
The 500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 31 March 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $361K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 500 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by March 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for 500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on 500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the 500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 March 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on 500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April??
$361K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on 500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.