Market Context by Polymarket

The Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. AD (Democratic Alliance) currently leads at 100%, ahead of Party A at 100% and Party B at 100%, across 16 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 18 May 2025.

Cumulative volume on this market is $3.5M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

A snap legislative election will take place in Portugal on 18 May 2025 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Portugal's Assembly of the Republic as a result of the upcoming election. If voting in the next Portugal election for the Assembly of the Republic does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Portugal’s government (e.g. via https://www.portaldoeleitor.pt/en/Pages/default.aspx). Note: The AD (Democratic Alliance), composed of PSD (Social Democratic Party), CDS–PP (People's Party) and PPM (People's Monarchist Party) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for AD (Democratic Alliance) will be assigned to the PSD (Social Democratic Party). The CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition), composed of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition) will be assigned to PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) .

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election??

AD (Democratic Alliance) leads at 100%, followed by Party A at 100% and Party B at 100%. Odds reflect live trading across 16 outcomes.

Who is the favourite on Party wins most seats in Portugal election?

AD (Democratic Alliance), at 100% implied probability.

How does the Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election? market resolve?

The market resolves on 18 May 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Party wins most seats in Portugal election?

$3.5M has traded cumulatively on this market across 16 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Party wins most seats in Portugal election?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.