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Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May?

On March 25, Minister of Defenсe of Ukraine Rustem Umerov announced an agreement to “cease the use of force, and to prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea." (see: https://x.com/rustem_umerov/status/1904549644463427740) This market will resolve to “Yes” if an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to suspend or end military actions on the Black Sea goes into effect by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means that a qualifying deal is actively implemented for any amount of time. This market's primary resolution source will be confirmation that the agreement is in effect by the governments of Ukraine and Russia, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming the deal is in effect may also be used.

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