Market Context by Polymarket
The Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 30 July 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $787K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q2 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on July 30, 2025, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered."
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 July 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025??
$787K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on economics?
Fed and macro markets tend to move in step with rate futures and repricing after data releases. They are usually well-calibrated close to a decision date and noisier further out.