Market Context by Polymarket
The U.S. tariff rate on China on April 30? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 100-150% currently leads at 100%, ahead of <20% at 0% and 20-50% at 0%, across 8 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 30 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $360K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on April 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 60% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for U.S. tariff rate on China on April 30??
100-150% leads at 100%, followed by <20% at 0% and 20-50% at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 8 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on U.S. tariff rate on China on April 30??
100-150%, at 100% implied probability.
How does the U.S. tariff rate on China on April 30? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on U.S. tariff rate on China on April 30??
$360K has traded cumulatively on this market across 8 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on U.S. tariff rate on China on April 30??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.