Market Context by Polymarket
The Canadian Election Debate Mentions: Poilievre market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Immigration 3+ times currently leads at 100%, ahead of Trump 3+ times at 100% and Carbon Tax at 100%, across 14 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 17 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $319K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The dates for the party leaders' debates in the 2025 Canadian federal election have been set, with the English-language debate scheduled for April 17, 2025, at 7:00 PM ET. You can read more about that here: https://globalnews.ca/news/11095091/canada-election-2025-leaders-debates/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre says the listed term during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of event.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Canadian Election Debate Mentions: Poilievre?
Immigration 3+ times leads at 100%, followed by Trump 3+ times at 100% and Carbon Tax at 100%. Odds reflect live trading across 14 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Canadian Election Debate Mentions: Poiliev?
Immigration 3+ times, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Canadian Election Debate Mentions: Poilievre market resolve?
The market resolves on 17 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Canadian Election Debate Mentions: Poiliev?
$319K has traded cumulatively on this market across 14 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Canadian Election Debate Mentions: Poiliev?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.