Market Context by Polymarket

The What will Trump say during his University of Alabama commencement speech on May 1? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. America 10+ times currently leads at 100%, ahead of Hell 3+ times at 100% and Joe / Biden 3+ times at 100%, across 18 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 1 May 2025.

Cumulative volume on this market is $324K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a commencement speech at the University of Alabama on May 1, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://tuscaloosathread.com/university-of-alabama-confirms-trumps-commencement-speech-for-all-spring-seniors/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the main speech Trump gives at the named event. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for What will Trump say during his University of Alabama commencement speech on May 1??

America 10+ times leads at 100%, followed by Hell 3+ times at 100% and Joe / Biden 3+ times at 100%. Odds reflect live trading across 18 outcomes.

Who is the favourite on What will Trump say during his University?

America 10+ times, at 100% implied probability.

How does the What will Trump say during his University of Alabama commencement speech on May 1? market resolve?

The market resolves on 1 May 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on What will Trump say during his University?

$324K has traded cumulatively on this market across 18 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on What will Trump say during his University?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.