Market Context by Polymarket

The Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 9 May 2025.

Cumulative volume on this market is $5.1M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between May 6, 5:00 PM ET and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, an Indian airstrike on a site in Pakistan or an Indian missile landing on Pakistani territory. Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution. The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday??

Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on Another India military strike on Pakistan?

Yes, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? market resolve?

The market resolves on 9 May 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Another India military strike on Pakistan?

$5.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Another India military strike on Pakistan?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.