Market Context by Polymarket
The Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 30 April 2026.
Cumulative volume on this market is $38M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal?
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 April 2026. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal?
$38M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.