Market Context by Polymarket
The Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Democratic currently leads at 100%, ahead of Republican at 0%. The market resolves on 8 November 2022.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.8M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. This market will resolve to the party which is affiliated with more than half of the voting Senate members after the 2022 Senate elections, or if the Vice President has the same party affiliation, half or more of the voting Senate members. A Senator's party affiliation is determined by whichever party’s caucus he or she is a member of; namely at the time of the writing of this question, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are considered to be affiliated with the Democratic Party. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2022 U.S. Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election??
Democratic leads at 100%, followed by Republican at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on party will control the U.S. 2022?
Democratic, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? market resolve?
The market resolves on 8 November 2022. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on party will control the U.S. 2022?
$1.8M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on party will control the U.S. 2022?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.