Market Context by Polymarket
The GPT-6 released by…? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. September 15, 2026 currently leads at 100%, ahead of October 31, 2026 at 100% and November 30, 2026 at 100%, across 13 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 1 January 2027.
Cumulative volume on this market is $2.4M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for GPT-6 released by…??
September 15, 2026 leads at 100%, followed by October 31, 2026 at 100% and November 30, 2026 at 100%. Odds reflect live trading across 13 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on GPT-6 released by…??
September 15, 2026, at 100% implied probability.
How does the GPT-6 released by…? market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 January 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on GPT-6 released by…??
$2.4M has traded cumulatively on this market across 13 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on GPT-6 released by…??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.