Market Context by Polymarket

The Will China report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average by May 1? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 5 May 2022.

Cumulative volume on this market is $323K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This is a market on whether China will report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average by May 1, 2022. This market will resolve to “Yes” if China reports a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average on or after this market’s inception date of March 15, and on or before May 1, 2022. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” At the time of this market’s inception, the record high 7-day COVID-19 case average in China was 4602.43. Thus, if China reaches a 7-day COVID-19 case average greater than 4602.43 after March 15 and on or before May 1, 2022, this market would resolve to “Yes.”, regardless of any retroactive updates on the previous record. This market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for China, with Metric "Confirmed Cases", Interval "7-day rolling average", which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~CHN&Metric=Confirmed+cases. The resolution source will be reviewed daily at 12 PM ET to see if any day had a 7-day rolling average above 4602.43. The final check will be on May 5, 2022.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will China report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average by May 1??

Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on China report a record high 7-day COVID-19?

Yes, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Will China report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average by May 1? market resolve?

The market resolves on 5 May 2022. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on China report a record high 7-day COVID-19?

$323K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on China report a record high 7-day COVID-19?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.