Market Context by Polymarket

The Will the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Event happen successfully on December 1st, 2020? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 16 January 2022.

Cumulative volume on this market is $560K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This is a market on if the Ethereum 2.0 Beacon Chain genesis event will happen successfully on December 1st, 2020, as planned contingent on the ETH deposit threshold being met in time. The ETH 2 “MIN_GENESIS_TIME” is December 1, 2020, 12pm UTC. If the genesis event doesn’t happen by December 1st, 11:59pm EST, this market will resolve to “No” - and in the unlikely scenario that it happens before November 30th, 11:59pm UTC, the market will also resolve to “No”. The threshold for the genesis event to occur on December 1st is for there to be at least 16,384 32-ETH validator deposits, 7 days prior to December 1st. If the threshold is met, and the genesis event doesn’t happen successfully before resolution time due to unforeseen circumstances, the market will still resolve to “No”. For more information, read this blog post https://blog.ethereum.org/2020/11/04/eth2-quick-update-no-19/ and the hyperlinked smart contract and documentation in it. The resolution source is specified as the official Ethereum blog, but in the case of there not being a definitive answer there, other reputable, on-chain referencing resolution sources would be considered. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the resolution of this market, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will resolve it in good faith in the most accurate way possible.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Event happen successfully on December 1st, 2020??

Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Eve 2020?

Yes, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Will the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Event happen successfully on December 1st, 2020? market resolve?

The market resolves on 16 January 2022. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Eve 2020?

$560K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Eve 2020?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.