Market Context by Polymarket
The Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2023.
Cumulative volume on this market is $668K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.03°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether prior years' figures are revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher)?
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on NASA record as the hottest y 2023?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2023. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on NASA record as the hottest y 2023?
$668K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on NASA record as the hottest y 2023?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.