Market Context by Polymarket
The Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in US Election? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 99%, ahead of Yes at 1%. The market resolves on 4 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.1M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if third-party candidates combined receive 10% or more of the total popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Third-party candidates refer to any candidates not running as a Democrat or Republican, including candidates running as independents.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in US Election??
No leads at 99%, followed by Yes at 1%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates i?
No, at 99% implied probability.
How does the Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in US Election? market resolve?
The market resolves on 4 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates i?
$1.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates i?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.