Market Context by Polymarket
The Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 1%. The market resolves on 30 December 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $4.7M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between July 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 1%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 December 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024??
$4.7M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.