Analysis
2024 U.S. Election: Breakthrough Moments & Million-Dollar Fortunes
From Biden's exit to Trump's victory, how Polymarket became the go-to source for election insights and minted fortunes for sharp predictors
Primo DataPolymarket Analytics
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election marked a watershed moment for prediction markets, with Polymarket emerging as the definitive source for real-time election insights and a platform where fortunes were made. With over $4.7 billion in trading volume across election-related markets, it was the largest event in the history of prediction markets.
The platform's journey to mainstream recognition began with President Joe Biden's unexpected withdrawal from the race in July 2024, which sent shockwaves through traditional media but was accurately predicted by Polymarket traders days in advance - rewarding early predictors handsomely.
As the election season unfolded, the markets evolved into sophisticated barometers of political sentiment, drawing intense scrutiny from political analysts, media organizations, and campaign strategists. The platform's real-time odds became an essential tool on election night, with viewers - including members of the Trump campaign team - relying on Polymarket's market prices to interpret incoming results. This watershed moment established prediction markets as an indispensable component of modern political analysis, complementing traditional polling and punditry.
The 2024 election minted fortunes for some traders. Of Polymarket's top 20 traders by PnL, 18 of them were "one-and-done" election traders.
The most remarkable story was a French trader who netted over $45 million across four separate accounts:
The story was first broke by @Domahhhh and @fozzydiablo, and went on to catch the attention of nearly every major media outlet in the world, including The Wall Street Journal.
The 2024 election marked a turning point for prediction markets, demonstrating their power to capture and predict major world events. But while the election was a watershed moment, sports markets are emerging as the next frontier. Currently, 4 of the top 5 markets by volume on Polymarket are sports-related, showing that prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular for sports enthusiasts and traders alike.