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Hi, I’m mango_lassi, a prediction market trader from India. Since July 2024, I’ve been active on Polymarket, where I turned a $5,000 deposit into over $115,000 in just nine months. What started as a fun and curious experiment quickly turned into an intense journey through the world of prediction markets. Here’s how it all unfolded.
I started trading on Polymarket in July 2024, just days before the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. My initial deposit was $1,000, small enough to lose without panic. At the time, Polymarket already listed over a thousand markets - ranging from the U.S. election to whether aliens would be confirmed by the end of the year. I spent the first few days just clicking through different markets, watching odds move and learning how the site works.
In the early days, I stuck to safe plays like Biden won’t resign. I also tried my hand at some sports markets, tempted by the big upside. By early August, I was up around $1,000 and feeling confident. But that confidence quickly turned costly: two bad sports bets wiped out over $2,000. It was a humbling lesson.
I quickly realized I had no real edge in sports, so I pivoted. With my balance nearly gone, I deposited another $4,000. I started zeroing in on markets where I could consistently outperform - particularly mention markets. My approach was simple but effective: I analyzed historical speech data to predict what Trump was likely to say in upcoming appearances. This data-driven approach gave me a real edge, and for the first time, I started winning consistently.
My biggest win came in the Trump-Lex Fridman podcast mention market. The video was scheduled to premiere on YouTube at a set time, but about an hour beforehand, I managed to find its transcript on his website. This gave me a huge edge, I scanned for relevant keywords, front-ran the market, and loaded up on cheap shares. When the episode premiered and the market resolved, I walked away with over $10,000 - one of those rare, perfect trades.
News Traders - These traders react in real time to breaking developments. As soon as news drops, they buy or sell shares to capitalize on short-term price inefficiencies. It’s a high-speed, high-stakes approach. Notable examples: car, Axios.
Predictive Traders - This group focuses on long-term conviction. They rely on deep research, domain knowledge, or gut instincts to make early calls—and often hold their positions until resolution. Think of them as forecasters rather than speculators. Notable examples: RememberAmalek, aenews.
Bonders - Bonders look for low-risk opportunities—markets where the odds are extremely favorable or outcomes are nearly certain. They bond liquidity for a small but safe return. It’s a patient and disciplined style. Notable example: scottilicious.
Price Action Traders - These traders focus almost entirely on market dynamics rather than event fundamentals. They buy low, sell high—purely based on price action and sentiment shifts. Speed and timing are key, and the goal is to capture short-term profits before the market stabilizes. Notable example: yatsen.
Liquidity Reward Farmers - These traders don't aim to predict outcomes - they provide liquidity and collect the incentive rewards Polymarket offers for doing so. Notable examples: pootytherewardfarmer. Fun fact: JustPunched has collected over $1 million in liquidity rewards alone.
As Polymarket becomes more competitive, traders are finding increasingly unconventional ways to gain an edge.
Someone tried a clever technique to predict the outcome of a market on whether Barron Trump would attend NYU. He tested various combinations of what could plausibly be Barron's NYU email address and checked if the addresses were valid.
In one instance, I predicted Coinbase's Rank in the App Store by noticing a sudden spike in Google searches for the app.
Some traders track the paths of private jets belonging to influential figures especially when their movements could affect market outcomes. For instance, plane-tracking helped inform speculation around potential Trump events. In fact, I used this yesterday to verify India's recent military strike on Pakistan.
Spotting Fake News - Constantly verifying information trained me to quickly identify unreliable sources and misinformation – a critical skill today.
Staying Neutral - Trading forced me to detach from personal opinions and focus purely on facts and probabilities.
Recognizing Biases - Frequent high-stakes decisions under uncertainty made me more aware of my own biases and how to manage them more effectively.
These skills have changed not just how I bet – but how I read the news, think about uncertainty, and make decisions in daily life.
Explore Before You Bet - Spend your first few days just observing. Browse active markets, study how pricing moves and get a feel for the platform. Don’t rush into trades - figure out what type of markets interest you most.
Specialize Based on Your Edge - Once you've explored enough, narrow your focus. Target markets where you have unique insight or experience – that's where you'll find consistent success.
Join the Community - Get active in Polymarket’s official Discord. Staying plugged in will expose you to valuable conversations and early information.
Manage Your Risk and Stay Patient - Avoid getting greedy. I’ve seen traders blow up accounts chasing short-term gains. Stick to your risk limits – personally, I never risk more than 10% of my portfolio on a single position. Staying conservative has kept me in the game.
Be wary of Your Biases -Watch out for common traps like feeling more confident just because the price moves your way, or blindly following high PnL traders (many of whom are often just guessing too). Always trust your own research and judgment
